Prediction markets are online platforms that facilitate the buying and selling of contracts whose values derive from the outcomes of future events. These events may range from the result of a ball game to the occurrence or non-occurrence of a natural disaster. Prediction markets strive to “financialise” almost every aspect of the world we inhabit. But what happens when this phenomenon threatens to envelop democracy within its sweeping reach? What if prediction markets commodify elections, the indispensable mechanism through which democratic choice is expressed? Michael Auerbach, in his forthcoming book, The Big Bet, examines how these online platforms are already exerting a potentially pernicious influence on elections. The book appears poised to become an indispensable contribution to the sparse yet increasingly urgent literature on prediction markets. The exploitation of information asymmetries and imbalances in agency is hardly a novel phenomenon. In the early to mid-nineteenth century, John Van Buren, the son of Martin Van Buren, the eighth President of the United States, brazenly used his father’s political connections to become an accomplished gambler. He wagered freely on gubernatorial contests, state legislative races, and ballot measures. The American mathematician and computer programmer Eric Hughes is regarded as a pioneer of the “cypherpunk” movement. In A Cypherpunk’s Manifesto, Hughes argued that cryptography and privacy are essential to the preservation of an open society. Online platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket push the envelope of such ideal to the furthest tolerable limit, and at times arguably beyond them. On Polymarket for example, more than $3 billion was wagered on the 2024 presidential election. Elections on Kalshi and Polymarket have become speculative playgrounds where democratic integrity is sacrificed at the altar of conspicuous greed.
Economics
The Doom Loop: why the world economic order is spiraling into disorder- Eswar Prasad
American economist and Tolani Senior Professor of International Trade Policy at Cornell University, Eswar Prasad, in The Doom Loop, brings into sharp and introspective focus the upheaval of the global order through the tectonic shifts reshaping central banking, democratic institutions, and political discourse. The ongoing crisis in West Asia, coupled with President Donald Trump’s penchant for imposing seemingly arbitrary and inexplicably erratic tariffs and even renaming geographical features associated with Canada, lends Prasad’s analysis an almost uncanny prescience. Prasad devotes considerable space to a discerning dissection of the nebulous China-United States relationship. Driven by an ascendant hyper-nationalism and an abiding faith in the insular tenets of protectionism, the world’s two largest economies are drifting apart rather than converging on issues of existential importance, from climate change to public health. Drawing on his extensive experience as the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China team, Prasad offers incisive insights into the distinctive features of China’s economic model and its likely future trajectory. China, he suggests, has single-handedly rebuffed the popular consensus that free markets constitute the singular remedy for economic malaise.
The Common Good Economy: A New Compass – Mariana Mazzucato
Prominent economist Mariana Mazzucato, in her latest book, proposes a set of five principles – terming them taken together as a ‘compass’ – which, according to her should characterise an economy. These principles are purpose and directionality, co-creation by citizens, collective learning, reward sharing, and accountability. Subsequent to the identification of the principles, the book dissects the merits and worth of each principle. The book begins with a historical journey tracing the philosophical origins of the common good. The works of Aristotle, Plato, Cicero, Thomas Hobbes etc. are alluded to before providing alternative challenges in the form of the communitarian visions of philosophers such as Micheal Sandel.